Easier Decisions

Formulas#

• Decision quality ≠ outcome quality. A good decision can turn out badly; judge the process, not the result. (Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets)
• Cost of a wrong decision = damage × time until you notice × cost to undo. Shrink any factor and the decision gets easier.
• Time to spend deciding ∝ how hard it is to reverse. One-way doors deserve care. Two-way doors deserve speed. (Jeff Bezos)
• Many small bets > one big bet. Expected value only shows up over many tries.

Framing (1–12)#

1. Asking "is this reversible?" first > treating every choice as permanent.
2. Writing the decision down in one sentence > deciding a fog.
3. Listing 3+ options > "yes or no." A binary question hides the better third option. (Chip & Dan Heath, Decisive)
4. "What would I need to believe for this to be right?" > arguing for a side.
5. Deciding on values first > deciding on details first.
6. Choosing by what you'll do daily > choosing by the title. You live in the daily routine, not the job title.
7. Asking "what does a normal Tuesday look like?" > imagining the highlight.
8. Separating "want" from "should" > mixing them.
9. Naming what you're afraid of > letting fear decide silently.
10. Knowing your non-negotiables (health, family, integrity) > renegotiating them every time.
11. Framing as an experiment ("I'll try it for 3 months") > a life sentence.
12. Deciding at the right altitude (life direction yearly, tactics weekly) > re-deciding everything daily.

Choosing (13–25)#

13. Talking to people who've done it > reading about it. Ten minutes with someone who did it beats a week of research.
14. Base rates ("what usually happens to people who do this?") > your special story. (Kahneman)
15. Trying a small version first (a trial month, a weekend, a side project) > jumping all in.
16. 10/10/10: how will I feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years? > how you feel right now. (Suzy Welch)
17. Sleeping on big decisions > deciding angry, tired or hungry.
18. Setting a deadline to decide > endless research.
19. Satisficing on small things ("good enough") > maximizing everything. Maximizers are less happy. (Barry Schwartz)
20. Flipping a coin to discover what you actually want > listing pros and cons forever. Your reaction to the result is the answer.
21. Asking one trusted person to argue the other side > asking friends who agree.
22. Choosing people over places > places over people. Who you'll be around matters more than the city.
23. Picking the option with more future options when unsure > the option that locks you in.
24. Protecting the downside > chasing the upside. Avoid ruin first, then optimize. (Taleb)
25. Deciding once and moving on > half-deciding and re-opening.

Big life bets (26–38)#

26. Betting on health, skills and relationships > betting on status.
27. Keeping 6–12 months of runway > deciding under money pressure. Scarcity makes every decision worse. (Mullainathan & Shafir, Scarcity)
28. Low fixed costs > a lifestyle that forces your choices.
29. Owning assets (products, audience, skills) > renting your time forever.
30. A home base you like > moving often because you're restless.
31. Having kids, moving countries, starting a company when your foundations are stable > when everything is shaky.
32. Partners and co-founders with shared values > shared excitement.
33. Timing entries to life seasons (energy, obligations) > forcing everything at once.
34. Leaving on good terms > burning bridges.
35. Choosing work that ages well (judgment, relationships, taste) > work that AI or youth will outcompete.
36. Staying near family while parents age > assuming there will be time later.
37. Small steady compounding > all-in bets you can't afford to lose.
38. Quitting fast when it's clearly wrong > loyalty to a bad choice.

After deciding (39–50)#

39. A decision journal (what you knew, what you expected) > rewriting history later. (Annie Duke)
40. Setting kill criteria up front ("if X by June, I stop") > deciding while emotional.
41. Committing fully for the trial period > half-trying and learning nothing.
42. Reviewing results at planned checkpoints > constantly second-guessing.
43. Separating bad luck from bad judgment > blaming yourself for dice rolls.
44. Keeping the regret list short by acting on the important "what ifs" > collecting them.
45. Telling people your decision > keeping it hidden and easy to abandon.
46. Letting go of the path not taken > comparing forever.
47. Updating when facts change > defending your old self.
48. Small course corrections > big dramatic reversals.
49. Celebrating good process > only celebrating good outcomes.
50. Most decisions are two-way doors > treating life like a minefield. Walk through, look around, walk back if needed.