Easier Validation

Formulas#

• Easy test = fast × cheap × based on behavior × a pass line written first.
• Evidence weight: payment > commitment > behavior > opinion.
• Days to signal: prefer tests that answer in days. A test that takes months is a project, not a test.
• A product needs a channel too. A validated product with no way to reach buyers still fails.

What to test (1–12)#

1. Demand > whether you can build it. You can almost always build it.
2. The riskiest assumption > the easiest one to test.
3. One question per test > several at once.
4. A pass line written first > judging after the fact.
5. A deadline > an open-ended test.
6. A narrow, named audience > "everyone."
7. The offer (outcome + price) > the idea. Ideas are easy to like and hard to pay for.
8. People who'd pay > people who'd use it for free.
9. The headline > the feature list.
10. An existing category > a new one you'd have to explain.
11. Where the audience already gathers > driving them to you.
12. A bet sized in hours > a bet sized in months.

Methods (13–26)#

13. Watching what people do > asking what they would do.
14. Reading public complaints > running surveys.
15. Pre-selling > collecting a waitlist.
16. Selling by hand > building a funnel.
17. Serving 5 customers manually > automating for 500.
18. A landing page > a prototype.
19. A prototype > a full product.
20. A template or spreadsheet version > an app.
21. Borrowed traffic (a community post, a partner's list) > ads.
22. A small paid test on buyer-intent searches > a big campaign.
23. Direct messages to 30 of the right people > a public launch.
24. Asking about what they did in the past > asking about the future.
25. A fake door > building the feature.
26. A competitor's unhappy customers > people who've never looked for a solution.

Reading signals (27–38)#

27. Money > words.
28. Unprompted follow-ups ("When can I get it?") > polite interest.
29. Strangers > friends.
30. Repeat use > first use.
31. A retention curve > a signup count.
32. Specific complaints > general praise.
33. A clear no > a vague maybe.
34. Comparing results to the pass line > comparing them to hope.
35. Surprises > confirmations.
36. A pattern across 5+ people > one loud voice.
37. The same result in two channels > one lucky channel.
38. Their words > your interpretation.

Deciding (39–50)#

39. Kill criteria set beforehand > deciding in the moment.
40. Changing one thing, then retesting > changing everything.
41. Changing the customer first > changing the product first. The same product often passes with a different audience.
42. Raising the bar after a pass > celebrating.
43. Stopping the tests once money flows > endless validation.
44. Many small bets in a row > one big bet.
45. A written test log > memory.
46. Reviewing results with a peer > deciding alone.
47. Killing fast > hoping longer.
48. Retesting every year > assuming it's still true.
49. Validating the channel with the product > the product alone.
50. "Would a stranger pay full price today?" > "Could this work someday?"