Easier to Survive

Formulas#

• Safe = reversible × diversified × low fixed cost × long runway.
• Avoid ruin first. Any chance of total loss outweighs any upside. (Nassim Taleb)
• Single-point rule: no single channel, customer, platform or vendor should bring more than 50% of anything.
• Runway = cash ÷ monthly burn. Keep 6–12 months.

Money (1–12)#

1. Profitable early > growth first.
2. A long runway > a short one.
3. Low personal costs > a lifestyle that needs a high income.
4. Revenue from many customers > a few big ones.
5. Recurring revenue > one-off sales.
6. Annual prepayments > monthly only.
7. Costs that flex with revenue > fixed contracts.
8. No debt > borrowed growth.
9. Tax money set aside > a tax surprise.
10. A backup payment provider ready > one provider.
11. A cash reserve in the business > no buffer.
12. A personal emergency fund > the business paying for emergencies.

Dependencies (13–25)#

13. Several channels > one.
14. Owned channels > rented ones.
15. Stable, official APIs > fragile ones.
16. An AI model you can swap > being locked to one provider.
17. Backups in more than one place > one location.
18. Following platform rules strictly > working in gray areas.
19. Your own domain and email > platform handles.
20. Portable data > data locked in a tool.
21. Written contracts with contractors > handshakes.
22. A trusted second person with emergency access > only you.
23. Written processes > knowledge in your head.
24. Vendors with alternatives > irreplaceable vendors.
25. A legal entity > personal liability.

Decisions (26–38)#

26. Fast on reversible decisions, slow on irreversible ones > the same speed for all.
27. Small bets > all-in.
28. Kill criteria > hope.
29. A barbell: a safe core plus small risky bets > medium risk everywhere.
30. Staged rollouts > big-bang releases.
31. A rollback plan > fixing forward only.
32. Testing demand before building > building first.
33. Keeping the old income until the new one covers your costs > quitting early.
34. Stage gates (the next project starts only after the last one hits its target) > everything at once.
35. Reading the terms > clicking accept.
36. A yearly pre-mortem > only post-mortems.
37. A one-page risk list > surprises.
38. Insurance against fatal damage > covering every risk yourself.

The founder (39–50)#

39. Sustainable hours > endless sprints.
40. Sleep > late nights.
41. Regular health checkups > ignoring warning signs.
42. Peers to talk to > isolation.
43. Family who know the plan > secrets.
44. Boring, repeatable wins > heroic efforts.
45. Enjoying the work > enduring it.
46. An identity outside the business > being the business.
47. Learning from small failures > waiting for a big one.
48. Planned time off > breaks forced by burnout.
49. A minimum commitment period > quitting at the first dip.
50. Never risking what you need for what you only want > betting everything.